Reviewing My Crypto Trades. From Making 2M Profit to Lose 1.5M (Satoshi)

I have a hard time trading the XBTUSD pair on BitMEX since June 2018. I decided to make a review to keep me alerted for the future.

Yes the account is small…as I am still a loser…

Click to read review OpenDate (HKT) Buy/Sell Contracts Open Price Close Price Final PnL (satoshi) CloseDate (HKT) Duration
1 4/6/2018 10:33 Sell -1000 7685 7650 59,534 6/6/2018 1:41 39:08:01
4/6/2018 22:27 Sell -2000 7482 7650 -587,030 6/6/2018 1:41 27:14:24
2 6/6/2018 9:41 Buy 1000 7634 7500 -234,041 7/6/2018 2:01 16:19:45
6/6/2018 15:17 Buy 700 7690 7500 -230,603 7/6/2018 2:01 10:43:59
3 7/6/2018 9:11 Buy 3000 7742 7592.5 -763,000 8/6/2018 18:23 33:11:30
4 9/6/2018 23:31 Buy 800 7631.5 7490 -198,041 10/6/2018 7:49 8:17:33
5 10/6/2018 7:49 sell -700 7490 7251.5 307,381 10/6/2018 21:43 13:54:33
10/6/2018 15:35 sell -1800 7240 7251.5 -39,428 10/6/2018 21:43 6:08:15
6 11/6/2018 1:05 sell -1000 7153 6514 1,371,402 17/6/2018 9:28 152:22:55
11/6/2018 1:32 sell -1000 7001.5 6514 1,068,897 17/6/2018 9:28 151:56:14
12/6/2018 7:37 sell -1000 6890 6514 837,762 17/6/2018 9:28 121:51:23
13/6/2018 13:54 sell -1000 6589 6514 174,741 17/6/2018 9:28 91:34:27
7 20/6/2018 0:03 sell -2000 6705 6384.5 1,497,381 30/6/2018 9:35 249:32:58
22/6/2018 16:34 sell -1000 6380 6384.5 -11,048 30/6/2018 9:35 185:01:30
22/6/2018 15:08 sell -1000 6500.5 6384.5 279,502 30/6/2018 9:35 186:27:08
24/6/2018 13:11 sell -500 5871 6384.5 -684,970 30/6/2018 9:35 140:24:02
25/6/2018 1:11 sell -500 6194 6384.5 -240,861 30/6/2018 9:35 128:24:07
8 1/7/2018 1:10 sell -500 6360.5 6720 -420,541 4/7/2018 21:13 92:02:20
1/7/2018 22:36 sell -500 6275.5 6720 -527,016 4/7/2018 21:13 70:36:14
2/7/2018 21:28 sell -500 6560 6720 -181,475 4/7/2018 21:13 47:44:36
3/7/2018 13:54 sell -500 6623 6720 -108,973 4/7/2018 21:13 31:19:01
9 7/7/2018 1:39 Buy 2000 6600 6482 -551,644 10/7/2018 17:39 88:00:02
8/7/2018 7:25 Buy 1000 6746 6482 -603,738 10/7/2018 17:39 58:13:49
10 12/7/2018 14:29 Sell -2500 6200 6445 -1,532,821 16/7/2018 17:20 98:51:03
11 23/7/2018 11:15 Buy 500 7617 7900 235,500 27/7/2018 7:00 91:44:54
12 6/8/2018 2:07 Buy 400 7000 6580 -364,742 8/8/2018 8:12 54:04:28

 

Trade 1

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I expected that the top for an immediate rebound is seen, and I started to sell XBTUSD.

Good: The trading idea was a successful even it was a loss. I opened the first position at the great time. Market never exceeded 7800 in that wave.

Bad: The 2nd position is OK, but the size is just too large. Thus I had to move my trailling stop closely, and the market steal my position.

PnL: -527,496 satoshi

Thoughts: Stop Loss Level, Total Position Size

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Trade 2

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Shortly after Trade 1 was closed, I reverted my view and went Long. I rushed and opened two position shortly. I should be trying to recover the loss.

Then, a slight retracement cleared the trades, again.

Good: Nil.

Bad: I FOMO-ed.

PnL: -464,644 satoshi

Thoughts: I should have reverted my view only after the market break out 7800. Also, the position size were too large before breakout.

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Trade 3

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This is a WTF trade..

Good: NOTHING

Bad: I FOMO-ed again. Desperate to get back the loss.

PnL: -763,000 satoshi

Thoughts: Only Long when market breaks the fxking range!

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Trade 4

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The 4th trade was also a disaster. I went long position, while neglecting the fact that the Bitcoin price did not rally up and breakout to the upside.. Quickly the real directed revealed and my positions were stopped out.

Good: The only good thing from the disaster was a relatively small position size.

Bad: I FOMO-ed again. Neglected the weakness in trend.

PnL: -198,041 satoshi

Thoughts: Only Long when market breaks the fxking range!

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Trade 5

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Trade 5 was a Change of View to Trade 4. I knew that if Trade 4 was stopped out, there would be a big wave following. I flipped the position to Sell Bitcoin. It was successful but I wasn’t too confident initially and closed very early.

Good: Identified the breakout correctly.

Bad: Didn’t trust myself and let go the position very early.

PnL: +267,953 satoshi

Thoughts: Once a breakout occur in 4H/6H/12H/Daily chart, the follow through is large. Let profit run.

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Trade 6

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After a few hours of Trade 5, I know that the downtrend will continue and added significant short positions (to my account). It was successful and I added more.

I sold 4000 contracts of Bitcoin and it made me to control the Stop Loss closely. If I didn’t sell that much, I could have ride the whole downtrend with more profits.

Good: Determined to sell Bitcoin when momentum is strong.

Bad: I was too greedy to add a lot of positions. Stop Loss level were too tight and I couldn’t ride the whole trend.

PnL: +4,452,802 satoshi

Thoughts: (Large positions + Tight Stop Loss) to grain more profit VS (Fewer position + Loosened Stop loss) to ride the trend

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Trade 7

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First 3 positions in Trade 7 were good. Last 2 positions were BAD. I was too greedy and neglected the chance to have a large rebound.

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Daily Chart of XBTUSD for Trade 7
Daily Chart of XBTUSD for Trade 7.
Note that we were at the previous bottom level.

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Good: First 3 positions were good. I sold when the trend began to change, and when the trend is confirmed.

Bad: The last 2 positions were bad. I was too greedy and I neglected the chance to have a dead-cat bounce.

PnL: +840,004 satoshi

Thoughts: We need to find opposite view all the time so that we can Guess the next potential move

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Trade 8

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This was another catastrophic trade I had. I ignored the Bottoming pattern in 4H/6H/12H chart. I only focused at the “Major downtrend in Daily/Weekly chart”. My Ego once again controlled me.

Good: Nothing was good in a disaster.

Bad: My eyes were blind with Greed and Ego. The bottoming pattern were so obvious.

PnL: -1,238,005 satoshi

Thoughts: This is why I need to build this Egobusted.com blog. lol…

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Trade 9

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I accepted the change of trend. I start to look for Long positions. I have had a deep drawdown already so I was too eager to get back my loss (Even there were still accumulated profit of 1,369,573 satoshi the last 8 trades).

The trend identification was fine. The problem was timing. That two positions weren’t good place to get it! They were the worst…

After Trade 9, I was break-even. Win nothing at all.

Good: The only good thing was I admitted and accepted the trend change.

Bad: I was at the “revenge mode”. Looking back the log I think that was a bit emotional to open the positions.

PnL: -1,155,382 satoshi

Thoughts: (Repeat) This is why I need to build this Egobusted.com blog. lol…

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Trade 10

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I was still at the revenge mode. I sell a lot of contract without seeing the price broke the support channel. I “expect” it to drop instead of confirming a drop.

Good: Nothing good.

Bad: Same as before..

PnL: -1,532,821 satoshi

Thoughts: I should have stayed away from the market. Which I really did afterwards.

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Trade 11

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I had a 10 day break since Trade 10. My account had little balance by that time and I can only open small positions. I monitored and set a Stop-Buy order to enter the market when it went in flavor of my view. It did quite well and I have a long-waited profit finally.

Good: I cleared up my mind and waited for a good opportunity to open buy order.

Bad: This trade was pretty good but I think I can close the trade slightly earlier.

PnL: +235,500 satoshi

Thoughts: Patience. Set a trigger with Stop-order to enter the market. Do it with less leverage.

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Trade 12

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After the July Rally, I had a neutral-slight bullish view to BTC market so I will just look for long positions. I waited until 7/Aug. the trade setup was fine but it was stopped out.

This trade was published at both TradingView and the Crypto Trading Ideas Section.

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Trade 12 Daily Chart
I changed my bearish view to a neutral-slight bullish view now.

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Good: I planned the trade logically.

Bad: It is not really bad although the trade was stopped out.

PnL: -364,742 satoshi

Thoughts: I think the Top-Down approach is better than a Bottom-Up approach when monitoring a market. I usually read the chart in the order of: Monthly>Weekly>Daily> intraday charts.

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Take Aways

  1. Finding the correct direction of the market is NOT DIFFICULT.
  2. You have to be patient. You need to wait the price to trigger your orders.
  3. Preserve Equity is much more important than grabbing a potential opportunity.
  4. Once you catch the train, stay with the train (You break-even OR you win big!)
  5. Don’t add positions easily, it alters your stop-loss level. Most of the time, it may hurt your profitability.
  6. Be humble to the market. It is the big brother and you have to follow him. Not the other way round.

For my next trade, I hope I can give up my ego and be humble to the market.

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What do you think?

If you enjoyed reading how I make loss in trades, Make Fun of me, Like my post and share!

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