I have a hard time trading the XBTUSD pair on BitMEX since June 2018. I decided to make a review to keep me alerted for the future.
Yes the account is small…as I am still a loser…
|Click to read review||OpenDate (HKT)||Buy/Sell||Contracts||Open Price||Close Price||Final PnL (satoshi)||CloseDate (HKT)||Duration|
|1||4/6/2018 10:33||Sell||-1000||7685||7650||59,534||6/6/2018 1:41||39:08:01|
|4/6/2018 22:27||Sell||-2000||7482||7650||-587,030||6/6/2018 1:41||27:14:24|
|2||6/6/2018 9:41||Buy||1000||7634||7500||-234,041||7/6/2018 2:01||16:19:45|
|6/6/2018 15:17||Buy||700||7690||7500||-230,603||7/6/2018 2:01||10:43:59|
|3||7/6/2018 9:11||Buy||3000||7742||7592.5||-763,000||8/6/2018 18:23||33:11:30|
|4||9/6/2018 23:31||Buy||800||7631.5||7490||-198,041||10/6/2018 7:49||8:17:33|
|5||10/6/2018 7:49||sell||-700||7490||7251.5||307,381||10/6/2018 21:43||13:54:33|
|10/6/2018 15:35||sell||-1800||7240||7251.5||-39,428||10/6/2018 21:43||6:08:15|
|6||11/6/2018 1:05||sell||-1000||7153||6514||1,371,402||17/6/2018 9:28||152:22:55|
|11/6/2018 1:32||sell||-1000||7001.5||6514||1,068,897||17/6/2018 9:28||151:56:14|
|12/6/2018 7:37||sell||-1000||6890||6514||837,762||17/6/2018 9:28||121:51:23|
|13/6/2018 13:54||sell||-1000||6589||6514||174,741||17/6/2018 9:28||91:34:27|
|7||20/6/2018 0:03||sell||-2000||6705||6384.5||1,497,381||30/6/2018 9:35||249:32:58|
|22/6/2018 16:34||sell||-1000||6380||6384.5||-11,048||30/6/2018 9:35||185:01:30|
|22/6/2018 15:08||sell||-1000||6500.5||6384.5||279,502||30/6/2018 9:35||186:27:08|
|24/6/2018 13:11||sell||-500||5871||6384.5||-684,970||30/6/2018 9:35||140:24:02|
|25/6/2018 1:11||sell||-500||6194||6384.5||-240,861||30/6/2018 9:35||128:24:07|
|8||1/7/2018 1:10||sell||-500||6360.5||6720||-420,541||4/7/2018 21:13||92:02:20|
|1/7/2018 22:36||sell||-500||6275.5||6720||-527,016||4/7/2018 21:13||70:36:14|
|2/7/2018 21:28||sell||-500||6560||6720||-181,475||4/7/2018 21:13||47:44:36|
|3/7/2018 13:54||sell||-500||6623||6720||-108,973||4/7/2018 21:13||31:19:01|
|9||7/7/2018 1:39||Buy||2000||6600||6482||-551,644||10/7/2018 17:39||88:00:02|
|8/7/2018 7:25||Buy||1000||6746||6482||-603,738||10/7/2018 17:39||58:13:49|
|10||12/7/2018 14:29||Sell||-2500||6200||6445||-1,532,821||16/7/2018 17:20||98:51:03|
|11||23/7/2018 11:15||Buy||500||7617||7900||235,500||27/7/2018 7:00||91:44:54|
|12||6/8/2018 2:07||Buy||400||7000||6580||-364,742||8/8/2018 8:12||54:04:28|
[su_lightbox type=”image” src=”https://www.egobusted.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/08/XBTUSD_review_trade01.jpg”][/su_lightbox]
I expected that the top for an immediate rebound is seen, and I started to sell XBTUSD.
Good: The trading idea was a successful even it was a loss. I opened the first position at the great time. Market never exceeded 7800 in that wave.
Bad: The 2nd position is OK, but the size is just too large. Thus I had to move my trailling stop closely, and the market steal my position.
PnL: -527,496 satoshi
Thoughts: Stop Loss Level, Total Position Size
[su_lightbox type=”image” src=”https://www.egobusted.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/08/XBTUSD_review_trade02.jpg”][/su_lightbox]
Shortly after Trade 1 was closed, I reverted my view and went Long. I rushed and opened two position shortly. I should be trying to recover the loss.
Then, a slight retracement cleared the trades, again.
Bad: I FOMO-ed.
PnL: -464,644 satoshi
Thoughts: I should have reverted my view only after the market break out 7800. Also, the position size were too large before breakout.
[su_lightbox type=”image” src=”https://www.egobusted.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/08/XBTUSD_review_trade03.jpg”][/su_lightbox]
This is a WTF trade..
Bad: I FOMO-ed again. Desperate to get back the loss.
PnL: -763,000 satoshi
Thoughts: Only Long when market breaks the fxking range!
[su_lightbox type=”image” src=”https://www.egobusted.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/08/XBTUSD_review_trade04.jpg”][/su_lightbox]
The 4th trade was also a disaster. I went long position, while neglecting the fact that the Bitcoin price did not rally up and breakout to the upside.. Quickly the real directed revealed and my positions were stopped out.
Good: The only good thing from the disaster was a relatively small position size.
Bad: I FOMO-ed again. Neglected the weakness in trend.
PnL: -198,041 satoshi
Thoughts: Only Long when market breaks the fxking range!
[su_lightbox type=”image” src=”https://www.egobusted.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/08/XBTUSD_review_trade05.jpg”][/su_lightbox]
Trade 5 was a Change of View to Trade 4. I knew that if Trade 4 was stopped out, there would be a big wave following. I flipped the position to Sell Bitcoin. It was successful but I wasn’t too confident initially and closed very early.
Good: Identified the breakout correctly.
Bad: Didn’t trust myself and let go the position very early.
PnL: +267,953 satoshi
Thoughts: Once a breakout occur in 4H/6H/12H/Daily chart, the follow through is large. Let profit run.
[su_lightbox type=”image” src=”https://www.egobusted.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/08/XBTUSD_review_trade06.jpg”][/su_lightbox]
After a few hours of Trade 5, I know that the downtrend will continue and added significant short positions (to my account). It was successful and I added more.
I sold 4000 contracts of Bitcoin and it made me to control the Stop Loss closely. If I didn’t sell that much, I could have ride the whole downtrend with more profits.
Good: Determined to sell Bitcoin when momentum is strong.
Bad: I was too greedy to add a lot of positions. Stop Loss level were too tight and I couldn’t ride the whole trend.
PnL: +4,452,802 satoshi
Thoughts: (Large positions + Tight Stop Loss) to grain more profit VS (Fewer position + Loosened Stop loss) to ride the trend
[su_lightbox type=”image” src=”https://www.egobusted.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/08/XBTUSD_review_trade07.jpg”][/su_lightbox]
First 3 positions in Trade 7 were good. Last 2 positions were BAD. I was too greedy and neglected the chance to have a large rebound.
[su_lightbox type=”image” src=”https://www.egobusted.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/08/XBTUSD_review_trade07_2.jpg”]
Good: First 3 positions were good. I sold when the trend began to change, and when the trend is confirmed.
Bad: The last 2 positions were bad. I was too greedy and I neglected the chance to have a dead-cat bounce.
PnL: +840,004 satoshi
Thoughts: We need to find opposite view all the time so that we can Guess the next potential move
[su_lightbox type=”image” src=”https://www.egobusted.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/08/XBTUSD_review_trade08.jpg”][/su_lightbox]
This was another catastrophic trade I had. I ignored the Bottoming pattern in 4H/6H/12H chart. I only focused at the “Major downtrend in Daily/Weekly chart”. My Ego once again controlled me.
Good: Nothing was good in a disaster.
Bad: My eyes were blind with Greed and Ego. The bottoming pattern were so obvious.
PnL: -1,238,005 satoshi
Thoughts: This is why I need to build this Egobusted.com blog. lol…
[su_lightbox type=”image” src=”https://www.egobusted.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/08/XBTUSD_review_trade09.jpg”][/su_lightbox]
I accepted the change of trend. I start to look for Long positions. I have had a deep drawdown already so I was too eager to get back my loss (Even there were still accumulated profit of 1,369,573 satoshi the last 8 trades).
The trend identification was fine. The problem was timing. That two positions weren’t good place to get it! They were the worst…
After Trade 9, I was break-even. Win nothing at all.
Good: The only good thing was I admitted and accepted the trend change.
Bad: I was at the “revenge mode”. Looking back the log I think that was a bit emotional to open the positions.
PnL: -1,155,382 satoshi
Thoughts: (Repeat) This is why I need to build this Egobusted.com blog. lol…
[su_lightbox type=”image” src=”https://www.egobusted.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/08/XBTUSD_review_trade10.jpg”][/su_lightbox]
I was still at the revenge mode. I sell a lot of contract without seeing the price broke the support channel. I “expect” it to drop instead of confirming a drop.
Good: Nothing good.
Bad: Same as before..
PnL: -1,532,821 satoshi
Thoughts: I should have stayed away from the market. Which I really did afterwards.
[su_lightbox type=”image” src=”https://www.egobusted.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/08/XBTUSD_review_trade11.jpg”][/su_lightbox]
I had a 10 day break since Trade 10. My account had little balance by that time and I can only open small positions. I monitored and set a Stop-Buy order to enter the market when it went in flavor of my view. It did quite well and I have a long-waited profit finally.
Good: I cleared up my mind and waited for a good opportunity to open buy order.
Bad: This trade was pretty good but I think I can close the trade slightly earlier.
PnL: +235,500 satoshi
Thoughts: Patience. Set a trigger with Stop-order to enter the market. Do it with less leverage.
[su_lightbox type=”image” src=”https://www.egobusted.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/08/XBTUSD_review_trade12.jpg”][/su_lightbox]
After the July Rally, I had a neutral-slight bullish view to BTC market so I will just look for long positions. I waited until 7/Aug. the trade setup was fine but it was stopped out.
This trade was published at both TradingView and the Crypto Trading Ideas Section.
[su_lightbox type=”image” src=”https://www.egobusted.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/08/XBTUSD_review_trade12_2.jpg”]
Good: I planned the trade logically.
Bad: It is not really bad although the trade was stopped out.
PnL: -364,742 satoshi
Thoughts: I think the Top-Down approach is better than a Bottom-Up approach when monitoring a market. I usually read the chart in the order of: Monthly>Weekly>Daily> intraday charts.
- Finding the correct direction of the market is NOT DIFFICULT.
- You have to be patient. You need to wait the price to trigger your orders.
- Preserve Equity is much more important than grabbing a potential opportunity.
- Once you catch the train, stay with the train (You break-even OR you win big!)
- Don’t add positions easily, it alters your stop-loss level. Most of the time, it may hurt your profitability.
- Be humble to the market. It is the big brother and you have to follow him. Not the other way round.
For my next trade, I hope I can give up my ego and be humble to the market.
What do you think?
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